1/17/2006
www.EPS-Consulting.com
5
Hindsight
Bias
•Jurors tend to treat
low a probability event that actually occurs as much more likely than it is.
–Jurors will believe it to have been more easily anticipated
and will
assign greater urgency to guarding against it.
–Jurors often conclude that manufacturers, utilities and
doctors should have anticipated every contingency.
–Jurors can be quick to blame victims who engage in
intrinsically risky behavior, regardless of who might have been negligent
•A second order effect
is that the more bizarre the circumstances, the more jurors tend to believe
that it must have been “somebody’s fault.”
•One strategy for overcoming hindsight bias is to argue by
analogy to something familiar to jurors.